754
pts
435
pts
319
pts
1
754
pts
435
pts
319
pts
1
The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator estimates the relative value of draft picks using a mathematical approximation of the famous Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart. Originally created by Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson and his staff in the early 1990s, the draft value chart revolutionized how NFL teams approach trades involving draft picks. By assigning point values to each selection in the draft, the chart provides a common currency for evaluating whether proposed trades are fair, lopsided, or approximately equal in value.
The original Jimmy Johnson chart assigns the first overall pick a value of 3,000 points, with values declining steeply through the first round and more gradually through later rounds. The second pick is valued at 2,600, the tenth at 1,300, the thirty-second (end of the first round) at 590, and selections in the seventh round at just 2-10 points. This steep decline reflects the empirical reality that top draft picks are vastly more likely to become impact players than later selections — the historical success rate for first overall picks becoming Pro Bowl-caliber players is approximately 60-70%, while seventh-round picks make the final roster less than 30% of the time.
This calculator uses a power-law approximation to model the Johnson chart's value curve. The formula value = k × pick^(-0.6) captures the essential mathematical relationship: draft pick value follows a power-law distribution where each subsequent pick is worth proportionally less than the one before it, with the steepest declines at the top. The exponent of -0.6 and the scaling factor are calibrated to closely match the original chart's values, particularly in the critical first two rounds where most trades occur.
While the original Johnson chart remains widely used, the analytics community has developed updated versions. The Rich Hill chart, the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart, and various team-specific internal charts adjust values based on modern research showing that mid-round picks may be more valuable than the Johnson chart suggests (because their salary-cap cost is much lower relative to their production). The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective published research in 2005 arguing that the surplus value of first-round picks — the difference between their on-field production and their salary-cap cost — is actually lower than later-round picks because of the rookie wage scale structure.
In practice, NFL teams use draft value charts as starting points for negotiation rather than rigid price lists. Factors beyond the chart include: positional value (quarterbacks command premium prices above chart value), draft depth at positions of need, how far apart the picks are in the draft order, the specific players available, and the trading teams' competitive windows. A team desperate to trade up for a franchise quarterback may offer well above chart value, while a team trading down might accept a slight discount to acquire additional picks and roster flexibility.
This calculator also provides a fair trade assessment to quickly evaluate whether a straight pick-for-pick trade is approximately fair. An assessment of 1 indicates a roughly fair trade (values within 10% of each other), 2 indicates the first pick is significantly more valuable, and 3 indicates the trade pick is more valuable. For multi-pick trades, you would need to sum the values of all picks on each side of the deal.
Whether you are a general manager exploring trade scenarios, a football media analyst breaking down deadline-day deals, a fantasy football league member evaluating draft pick trades, or simply a fan who wants to understand the economics of NFL draft day, this calculator provides instant insight into the relative worth of any draft position. The power-law model captures the essential dynamic that makes top picks so coveted: there is a massive difference between picking 1st and 10th, a significant difference between 10th and 30th, and a modest difference between 150th and 200th.
The calculator uses a power-law function to approximate the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart.
The value of a draft pick at position \(n\) is estimated as:
$$V(n) = k \cdot n^{-0.6}$$
where \(k\) is a scaling constant calibrated so that the first overall pick has a value of approximately 3,000 points and later picks decline following the curve of the original chart. The exponent \(-0.6\) captures the rate of value decay — a steeper exponent would mean faster decline.
The scaled value displayed is:
$$V_{\text{scaled}} = \text{round}\left(3 \times 1000 \times n^{-0.6}\right)$$
The value difference between two picks is:
$$\Delta V = |V(n_1) - V(n_2)|$$
The fair trade assessment uses the ratio \(V(n_1) / V(n_2)\): ratios between 0.9 and 1.1 are considered approximately fair (assessment = 1), ratios above 1.1 mean pick 1 is more valuable (assessment = 2), and ratios below 0.9 mean the trade pick is more valuable (assessment = 3).
This power-law model is a simplification — the original Johnson chart was created empirically rather than mathematically, so this approximation is closest in the first three rounds and may diverge slightly for late-round picks.
Higher point values indicate more valuable draft positions. The first overall pick (approximately 3,000 points) is worth roughly 5-6 times as much as the last first-round pick (approximately 500 points). This steep decline reflects the reality that the probability of drafting a franchise-changing player drops rapidly after the first few selections.
The value difference shows how many additional points one side would need to offer to balance a trade. In practice, teams compensate for value differences by including additional picks, swapping picks in other rounds, or including current players in the deal.
The fair trade assessment provides a quick verdict: 1 = approximately fair trade, 2 = your pick is significantly more valuable (you should receive additional compensation), 3 = the trade pick is more valuable (you would need to offer additional compensation). For the most accurate evaluations, compare multi-pick trade packages by summing all pick values on each side.
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Pick #3 value ≈ 1534 pts. Pick #12 value ≈ 636 pts. Difference = 898 pts. The #3 pick is worth about 2.4× the #12 pick. The team trading down would need significant additional compensation — typically a second-round pick or better to bridge this gap.
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Pick #28 ≈ 367 pts. Pick #32 ≈ 335 pts. Difference = only 32 pts. These picks are close enough in value (ratio ~1.1) that a straight swap is approximately fair. In practice, teams might exchange a late-round pick to sweeten the deal slightly.
The Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart is a point-based system created by Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson and his staff in the early 1990s to assign numerical values to each of the NFL Draft's approximately 260 picks. The chart assigns the #1 overall pick 3,000 points, with values declining steeply through the first round and more gradually thereafter. It became the NFL's de facto standard for evaluating draft pick trades and is still widely used today, though several updated versions have been developed using modern analytics.
The power-law model V = k × n^(-0.6) closely matches the original Johnson chart for picks 1 through 100, which is where the vast majority of draft-day trades occur. The approximation may diverge slightly for late-round picks (rounds 5-7), where the original chart's values were assigned somewhat arbitrarily. For most practical trade evaluation purposes, the power-law model is sufficiently accurate. The exact values matter less than the relative ratios between picks.
Yes, most NFL teams use some version of a draft value chart as a starting point for trade negotiations. The original Johnson chart is still referenced, though many teams have developed proprietary updated versions. Some analytically progressive teams use charts based on historical player performance data (like the Harvard/Rich Hill charts) that value mid-round picks more highly than the Johnson chart does. The chart serves as a common language for trade discussions, even if final deals are influenced by many factors beyond the numbers.
Early picks are more valuable because they offer access to the best available talent. Historically, top-5 picks become Pro Bowl players about 50-60% of the time, while mid-round picks achieve that level at rates below 10%. Additionally, teams with high picks have their choice of the best prospects regardless of position, allowing them to fill critical needs with elite talent. The steep value curve reflects this dramatic difference in expected player quality and the certainty of getting a high-impact contributor.
Quarterback trades consistently exceed chart value because the position's impact on team success is disproportionately large. Teams trading up for a franchise quarterback routinely pay 50-100% premiums above chart value. For example, a trade to move from #12 to #2 to draft a quarterback might cost the equivalent of 6,000+ chart points, well above the ~900-point difference the chart suggests. This 'quarterback premium' reflects the reality that elite quarterbacks can transform a franchise's trajectory for a decade or more.
Draft value charts have several limitations: they do not account for draft class quality (a pick in a deep draft is worth more than one in a weak draft), they ignore salary-cap implications (first-round picks cost significantly more than later picks under the rookie wage scale), they do not adjust for positional value, they treat all picks of the same number identically regardless of the specific players available, and they cannot capture team-specific needs or competitive windows. Modern analytics-based charts address some of these issues but introduce their own assumptions.
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